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China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.